Sample dataEdition 27-Oct-2612 months to Sep-26Data to 30-Sep-26Business Requirements v1.2
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Revenue over the last 12 months is A$80.5m, 5.1% below the path to A$115m. Most of the fall is OEMs cutting their buying by 47% after two years of buying ahead, and the only software growth is one A$7.4m licence.
Hardware has held at A$12.6m to A$14.5m a quarter for five quarters: the fall has stopped, but nothing has replaced it. Without the licence, software is down 15.6%, and 31.5% of design wins have shipped against a 35% target. The business isn't yet growing underneath the fall. Buying ahead is a Strong Inference; the bridge is Observed Fact.
Top 3 actions
CEO, with the CFO○ No update
CFO rebuilds the forecast OEM by OEM; CEO resets the sales plan and effort
Revenue A$115m by 30-Jun-28
CEO, with Platform Engineering and Sales○ No update
Checks the product and sales effort behind software, without the big licence
Software growth 0% or more by 30-Jun-27
VP Sales○ No update
Refocuses on design wins that will ship, not ones that earn a bonus
35% of design wins shipped by 30-Jun-27
In brief: the Top 5
What changed
Page 2 · Total revenue
Revenue for the last 12 months is A$80.5m, A$4.36m below the path to A$115m.
It peaked at A$122.1m in Jun-24 and dropped through FY26. Since Jun-26 it has been flat, while the path rises A$1.43m a month. Even the FY27 board plan, A$92.7m, would sit 5.2% below the path at Jun-27. So what took a third off revenue?
Total revenue, last 12 months, by month, Jul-22 to Sep-26. Path: straight line from A$80.6m (Jun-26) to A$115m (Jun-28). Observed Fact.
Without the one A$7.4m licence the board plan is A$84.2m, not A$92.7m: the plan repeats it. The CFO is to say which line the board measures against. Click the chart to replay.
OEMs buying fewer units than they installed took A$48.0m off revenue.
Revenue fell A$37.8m, from A$118.4m in FY25 to A$80.6m in FY26. End customers installing 3.3% fewer devices cost only A$1.8m. The one A$7.4m licence and A$4.5m less paid in rebates softened the fall. Nothing is left unexplained.
Revenue bridge, FY25 to FY26, by effect, A$m. Bridge arithmetic: Observed Fact. Installs come from the telemetry.
TotalTook revenue offAdded revenue
Why
Page 3 · Largest cause first
OEMs bought 5.28m units in FY24 for 2.43m devices installed; in FY26, 2.59m for 2.46m.
The blue dots are what OEMs bought beyond what end customers installed: about 6.9 million units from Jul-22 to Jun-25. Once lead times fell from about 48 weeks to 8, that buffer stopped. In FY26 the blue all but disappears, which is the A$48.0m in the bridge.
Experimental: one dot is 50,000 units, rounded, so exact values can't be read (see data below). Units invoiced and devices installed, by financial year. Strong Inference.
Installed by end customersBought beyond installsOne dot = 50,000 units
Software grew to A$25.1m only because of one A$7.4m licence.
Without it, software fell 15.6%, from A$21.0m to A$17.7m. Other perpetual licences took A$3.52m off, from 105 deals to 81. Subscriptions added only A$0.23m and A$0.05m. So the FY26 software growth rests on one contract, and the FY27 plan repeats it.
Software revenue bridge, 12 months to Sep-25 against 12 months to Sep-26, A$m. Observed Fact. No customer is named.
TotalTook revenue offAdded revenue
About a third of design wins ship, and the share stops rising after three years.
Of 430 design wins from Jan to Jun 2023, 21% had shipped at 18 months and 32% at 42. The 80% belief was never measured. Today 31.5% of wins old enough have shipped, against 35%. Since Jul-24 reps earn A$400 per win with no clawback: wins rose from 230 to 273 a quarter, but the shipping rate stayed flat.
Share shipped by months since design win, Jan to Jun 2023 design wins (430). Working Hypothesis: 33% of CRM records have no stage dates.
Share shippedTarget 35%The 80% belief
What to do
Page 4 · Owners and targets from the Business Requirements v1.2
Three owners, three targets, and six decisions that unlock them.
Revenue needs A$1.64m a month more to reach A$115m by Jun-28, and today it is moving −A$0.02m a month. The first move is a forecast built OEM by OEM. Software and design wins each have one owner and a date of 30-Jun-27. Six open questions decide how the targets are read.
Actions, owners and targets from the Business Requirements v1.2. Pace and trend from the KPI Calculation Pack v1.1.
Decisions the board is waiting on · due 6-Nov-26
Does "within two years" mean 30-Jun-28, and how was A$115m set?Chair, via the CEO
The FY27 targets, and whether the plan should repeat the one-off licenceCFO
What size makes a software licence "large" (A$1m proposed)VP Sales with the CFO
Which forecast counts for forecast accuracyCFO
Can OEMs and customers be named on the board pageCFO with legal
How long after a design win a product should ship (18 months proposed)VP Sales with Platform Engineering
Demand and forecasts
Page 5 · New devices activated and forecast accuracy
End customers kept installing; it was OEM buying that fell, and neither forecast saw it.
New devices activated is the closest view of end-customer demand. It barely moved while OEMs cut their buying by 47%. Stock at the OEMs that report is still high, so buying may stay low. Both forecasts missed that step, and the CFO is still to choose which one counts, so both are shown.
Signed off 27-Oct-26: new devices activated by the Head of Platform Engineering, forecast accuracy by the CFO.
Installs fell 1.4% over 12 months, but the latest quarter is up 4.9%.
Every quarter of FY26 was down on the year before, by 2.7% to 4.1%. Jul to Sep 26 turned up again, in 19 of 21 countries. The dip began the month firmware 4.5.0 shipped, so Engineering needs to rule that out. The cause is not settled: Working Hypothesis.
New devices activated, change on the same quarter a year before. 12 months: 2,492,460 against 2,528,350. Target +5% by 30-Jun-27. Sample is 1 in 10 devices.
Reporting OEMs hold 10.9 months of stock, down from 15.4 at the peak.
Cover jumped when OEMs stopped buying, peaking in 2025-Q3. Their stock has since fallen 45% like for like, but purchases stayed low, so cover is still above the 9-month red line. More destocking is possible before hardware buying recovers.
Months of stock cover at the 28 OEMs that reported in 2026-Q3 (reporters cover 46% of FY26 hardware revenue). Target 6 or less by 30-Jun-27.
Months of coverTarget 6Red line 9
Neither forecast called the hardware step, and Sales has been too high in 12 of 12 quarters.
Last quarter Finance was 17.2% under and Sales 25.6% over. Since Jul-25 the misses roughly doubled. Over the last four quarters Finance missed by 23.2% on average and Sales by 34.3%, against a 10% target. Most of the miss is hardware, the same cause as the revenue fall.
Forecast accuracy: forecast minus actual, as a % of actual, by quarter, FY24-Q1 to FY27-Q1. No Sales forecast for FY25-Q3. Observed Fact.
Finance forecastSales forecastWithin 10% (target)
Back page
Page 6 · Drill-down and definitions
Software: largest licence share and gross margin, with and without the licence 2 sub-KPIs
One licence is 29.4% of new software contract value; without it the largest is 4.9%.
Gross margin is 76.5%, above the board's 76%, but 74.1% without the licence, which reads Behind. Both readings change by themselves in Mar-27, when the licence leaves the 12-month window, so neither will show whether sales behaviour changed.
Share of software contract value started in the 12 months to Sep-26 (617 contracts); gross margin %, 12 months to Sep-26. Observed Fact.
Bands, light to dark: off track, behind, on track. The tick is the target line (largest licence under 10%; gross margin 76% or more).
Design wins: count per quarter and months to first shipment 2 sub-KPIs
Design wins rose to 1,180 in FY26 while the share that ships stayed flat.
Since Jul-24 reps earn A$400 per design win, with no clawback. Wins per quarter rose from 230 to 273 and the median deal got smaller, but the shipping rate didn't move. Wins that do ship take a median 15.0 months.
Design wins by financial quarter, FY23-Q3 to FY27-Q1; median months from design win to first shipment, wins at least 18 months old (672 shipped).
Before the bonusWith the A$400 bonus
Definitions 10 KPIs
Total revenue, last 12 months, against the path to A$115m
Sum of ledger revenue over the last 12 months (hardware sales less rebates, software licences and subscriptions, developer kits and freight), each month, against a straight line from A$80.6m (Jun-26) to A$115m (Jun-28). Owner: CEO. Counter-metric: gross margin %.
New devices activated in the field
Devices joining a network for the first time in the last 12 months, against the 12 months before, earliest date per device. Sample is 1 in 10 devices, counts × 10. Owner: VP Sales. Signed off by the Head of Platform Engineering, 27-Oct-26.
Software revenue growth without one-off large licences
Software revenue over the last 12 months ÷ the 12 months before, minus 1, leaving out any single licence over A$1m (to agree with the CFO). Growth including them shown alongside. Owner: CEO.
Design wins that ship
Of design wins at least 18 months old, the share that have reached shipping. Lost after design win counts as not shipped. Records with no stage dates are left out and counted. Owner: VP Sales.
Forecast accuracy
Each quarter, (forecast − actual) ÷ actual, using the forecast made on or before the first day of the quarter, for Finance and Sales. Owner: CFO. Signed off by the CFO, 27-Oct-26; Finance and Sales both shown until the CFO chooses one.
Months of stock cover at the OEMs that report
Units on hand at the OEMs that reported in the quarter (reels × 500) ÷ their average monthly units invoiced in the same quarter. Owner: VP Sales.
Share of software revenue from the largest licences
Largest licence (and largest five) as a share of all software contract value started in the last 12 months. Owner: VP Sales.
Gross margin %, last 12 months
(Revenue − cost of sales) ÷ revenue over the last 12 months. Target 76% (the board's FY27 figure). Owner: CFO.
Months from design win to first shipment
Median months between design win and shipping, for design wins at least 18 months old. Target set after the baseline. Owner: Head of Platform Engineering.
Design wins per quarter
Count of opportunities reaching design win in the financial quarter. Read with design wins that ship. Owner: VP Sales.